
*美元维持在98–99关键支撑区,但上涨主要受事件和仓位推动,而非基本面改善。
*劳动力数据显示经济疲软,裁员增加、就业信心下降。
*美联储态度偏鸽,官员公开讨论2026年可能降息150个基点。
市場概況:
美元指数(DXY)稳定在98–99支撑区附近,市场在等待非农报告及美国最高法院可能的关税裁决前谨慎持仓。短期支撑来自事件驱动与避险需求,但中期基本面脆弱。
近期劳动力数据表明“无雇佣、无解雇”的经济。周度失业救济申请低,12月裁员月环比下降,但年度裁员达到2020年以来最高,Q4裁员为金融危机以来最差第四季度。调查显示就业预期下滑至历史低点,违约风险上升,家庭信用压力积聚。
货币政策预期成为主导。美联储官员讨论2026年降息150个基点,警告政策仍过紧可能损害劳动力市场。财政及政治风险增加美元中期不确定性。若美元跌破长期98支撑,将暗示弱美元趋势,尤其当劳动力数据不佳或降息预期加速时。
技術分析

美元指数突破11月底以来的下降趋势线,显示短期趋势可能恢复。价格回升至98.75–98.80区域,该区域由阻力转为短期支撑。RSI中高位,表明多头势力增强但未过度买入,MACD显示上涨交叉,动能提升。只要维持在趋势线之上,回调仍可能为结构性调整,而非趋势反转。
阻力位: 99.25, 99.70
支撑位: 98.75, 98.10
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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