Published: 11 November 2026,07:40
Daily Market Analysis New
*選舉結果明朗後，市場不確定性下降，道瓊大漲 3%，標普500與那斯達克綜合指數分別上漲 1.6% 和 1.4%。
*民主黨取得國會兩院控制權，降低市場對政策突然轉向的預期。油價與美債殖利率回落，也為股市提供額外支撐。
*接下來的經濟數據、企業財報、科技股估值，以及地緣政治與能源價格走勢，將左右美股下一步方向。
美國期中選舉後，華爾街強勁反彈，三大指數均錄得明顯漲幅。道瓊工業指數單日上漲約 3%，創數十年來期中選舉後最強勁的單日表現之一。標普500指數上漲約 1.6%，那斯達克綜合指數則上漲約 1.4%。在選舉結果牽動市場、波動連續數日偏高後，投資者的風險偏好明顯回升。
民主黨取得國會兩院控制權，結束共和黨同時掌控白宮與國會的局面。投資者普遍認為，在分立政府格局下，重大政策變動較難迅速推進，有助於提高政策的可預測性。美國總統川普公開接受選舉結果，也緩解了市場對政治不確定性延續的擔憂，促使波動率指標回落，為股市提供支撐。
油價大幅下跌也助長了這波反彈。市場預期，民主黨主導的國會可能加大施壓，促使涉及伊朗的衝突降溫。油價回落緩解了通膨疑慮，也有助於壓低美債殖利率。醫療保健與部分消費相關類股則受政策調整預期帶動，表現優於大盤。從歷史經驗來看，無論期中選舉結果如何，美股在選後數月往往走強，這也為市場情緒帶來支撐。
展望後市，漲勢能否延續，取決於選後的釋然情緒能否轉化為持續買盤，以及市場是否重新聚焦科技股與AI相關個股的估值壓力。即將公布的經濟數據與企業財報也將影響投資情緒。選舉結果為本輪反彈提供了明確催化因素，但地緣政治、能源價格與政策預期仍將左右後續走勢。
技術分析
那斯達克指數在4月以來的最低水準獲得支撐，隨後自低點反彈逾 6%，顯示短期市場情緒明顯改善。
儘管反彈力道強勁，指數目前在 28,850.00點 面臨關鍵考驗。該水準是水平阻力與下降趨勢線的交會處，也是判斷本輪反彈能否演變為趨勢反轉的重要位置。
若指數有效突破 28,850.00點，並持續收在該水準上方，將確認買盤動能回升，為較長期的看漲反轉提供訊號，下一道阻力可關注 29,860.00點。相反，若指數在此遇阻回落，這波升勢可能仍屬技術性反彈，指數也可能再度面臨賣壓。
阻力位（Resistance Levels）： 28,850.00、29,860.00
支持位（Support Levels）：27,080.00、26,280.00
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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