Published: 11 November 2026,07:47
Daily Market Analysis New
*貨幣政策委員會以 8比1 的票數決定升息25個基點至 4.00%，為逾三年來首次升息，鷹派立場為英鎊提供支撐。
*英國9月CPI年增率升至 3.5%，央行預估通膨可能在明年年中接近 5%。經濟成長也較預期有韌性，進一步支持收緊貨幣政策。
*若通膨高於預期，可能推升市場對再次升息的預期，帶動英鎊延續漲勢；若數據低於預期，英鎊則可能回吐部分漲幅。
英國央行上週將基準利率調高25個基點至 4.00%，為逾三年來首次升息，英鎊隨後兌多種G10貨幣走強。貨幣政策委員會有八名委員支持升息25個基點，另一名委員則主張升息50個基點，反映決策者對通膨壓力持續的擔憂。隨著市場重新評估英國利率前景，較緊的政策立場為英鎊提供支撐。
近期英國經濟數據也支持收緊政策。受中東衝突推升能源價格影響，英國9月CPI年增率升至 3.5%，央行預估通膨可能在明年年中接近 5%。與此同時，儘管成本上升，英國經濟成長仍比先前預測更有韌性。這些數據使市場更難將此次升息視為一次性行動，也有助於維持英鎊買盤。
展望後市，英鎊短期走勢將取決於即將公布的經濟數據，尤其是 英國10月CPI。若通膨高於預期，市場可能加碼押注英國央行再次升息，為英鎊提供進一步支撐；若通膨低於預期，升息預期可能降溫，英鎊也可能回吐部分近期漲幅。
英國與美國及歐元區的利差變化，以及全球能源價格對市場風險情緒的影響，也將左右英鎊走勢。此次升息為英鎊提供了初步支撐，但漲勢能否延續，仍取決於後續數據是否顯示通膨壓力持續。
技術分析
歐元兌英鎊仍處於較長期的下跌趨勢，但近期走勢顯示短線反彈正在形成。匯價在2025年3月以來的低點附近盤整一週後，已突破區間上緣，顯示買盤回流。
動能指標也有所改善。MACD已升破零軸，顯示動能轉為正向；相對強弱指數（RSI）則持續走高並接近超買區，反映買盤力道增強。
若匯價守穩原盤整區間上緣，該位置有望轉為支撐，短線走勢仍偏多。不過，RSI已接近超買區，仍可能出現短暫回調。若要確認較長期的趨勢反轉，匯價仍須守住突破位置，並逐步形成高點與低點同步墊高的型態。
阻力位（Resistance Levels）： 0.8390、0.8450
支持位（Support Levels）：0.8325、0.8260
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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