
*美國與伊朗外交緩解供應恐慌後油價回落
*地緣政治風險溢價仍在油價中持續存在
*庫存下降與期貨近月升水顯示短期供應緊張
市場概況:
油價從近期高位回落,但仍維持在多月高位,反映市場在外交緩和與地緣政治風險之間平衡。最新回落源於美伊在日內瓦的核談判,暫時緩解了即時供應中斷擔憂。布蘭特原油在談判顯示初步進展後略跌,市場開始在外交渠道活躍時修剪風險溢價。評論指出,雖然緊張局勢仍高,但全面衝突似乎不太可能,導致部分投資者採取觀望態度,限制進一步上行。
然而,下行空間有限,因整體地緣政治背景仍然緊張。市場仍密切關注美國可能對伊朗採取軍事行動,分析師指出霍爾木茲海峽作為全球油流要道的戰略風險仍支撐價格。即便是輕微升級的風險,也足以使油價在間歇性獲利了結下仍接近高位。
供應端信號也提供支撐。美國原油庫存近期大幅下降,增強短期供應緊張的觀感。同時,期貨結構進入更深的升水狀態,顯示現貨需求穩固且供應有限。這些因素解釋了價格下跌幅度有限,而非持續下行的開始。
需求方面,宏觀疲軟限制了上行動能。美國GDP增長低於預期以及全球消費疑慮,間歇性對能源市場構成壓力,導致油價從高位回落。但由於地緣政治風險未解與庫存收緊,短期內油價仍有結構性支撐。
技術分析

油價持續在區間阻力附近盤整,位於65.80–66.00供應區下方,在61.66–62.00的基底突破後短期結構轉向。從61.65形成更高低點,並強勁推升至64.30與65.80,短期動能偏向上行。RSI從近70回落至50中線附近,顯示動能降溫但未完全耗盡。MACD仍在正值區,直方圖稍收縮,顯示上行動能未逆轉。
阻力位: 65.80, 66.85
支撐位: 65.80, 64.30
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
Important Notice to Visitors
Our products and services are not offered or made available to residents of your jurisdiction. The information on this Website is not directed at persons in your jurisdiction and is not intended as an offer, solicitation, or promotion of our products or services to them.
By clicking “I Understand”, you acknowledge this notice and confirm that you are accessing this Website at your own initiative. Access to this Website does not mean that our products or services are available to you.
Important Notice
Please be advised that our products and services are currently unavailable to residents and entities located in the Philippines.
This restriction is a result of our firm commitment to adhering to applicable legal and regulatory requirements in all jurisdictions where we operate. In line with our internal compliance protocols and evolving global standards, we continuously assess and update access to our platform to ensure full regulatory alignment.
We appreciate your understanding and cooperation.
If you believe this restriction has been applied in error, please contact our support team for further assistance.
尊敬的用戶:
為持續提供穩定與可靠的交易環境,PU Prime 將於每週週末進行以下例行系統最佳化:
我們對可能造成的不便深表歉意,並衷心感謝您的體諒。 PU Prime 始終致力於為您提供卓越的交易體驗,而本次每週定期系統優化正是為了進一步確保您的交易流程更加穩定與順暢。
若未來涉及更長的系統升級,PU Prime 將提前透過單獨公告進行通知。
Important Notice:
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
重要通知:
本網站僅供居住於依法允許瀏覽本網站之司法管轄區的個人使用。
請注意,PU Prime 及其關聯實體並未在您所在的司法管轄區設立或開展業務。
點擊「確認」按鈕,即表示您確認完全基於自身意願瀏覽本網站,而非受到任何特定行銷推廣的影響。您希望取得本網站所提供的資訊,而相關資訊將依據您所在司法管轄區的法律,基於反向招攬原則向您提供。
Aviso importante:
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.