
*黃金自週五以來走高,受美元走軟與宏觀不確定性支撐
*關稅裁決帶來財政不確定性,提升黃金吸引力
*中東緊張局勢及特朗普總統言論支撐避險需求
市場概況:
黃金自週五以來小幅走高,受到宏觀不確定性、美元走軟與地緣政治風險溢價再起的支撐。美國最高法院裁定大部分關稅制度無效,是重要催化因素,市場開始評估潛在財政壓力與法律不確定性。分析師指出,可能需要退還關稅或降低未來貿易收入,增加對貨幣寬鬆的依賴,對非收益資產如黃金具有正面影響。
中東緊張局勢也強化了避險需求。特朗普總統表示美國可能採取有限打擊以迫使伊朗達成核協議,並有擴大軍事部署報導,提升尾部風險。雖未定價為即時衝突,但足以保持黃金穩定需求,防止深度回落。
儘管如此,黃金上行幅度有限,因利率因素抵消部分漲勢。美聯儲核心PCE於12月達3.0%年增,顯示通膨壓力持續。多位聯儲官員表示政策仍需保持溫和限制性,使實際收益率未大幅下降,限制黃金突破力。
結構上,貴金屬長期背景仍支撐。央行需求提供底部支撐,ETF持倉自1月波動後穩定,市場仍預期2026年最終將放寬貨幣政策。結合地緣政治不確定性與美國財政問題,黃金仍呈現逢低偏多的格局。交易者將密切關注特朗普最新演說,任何政策或地緣言論升級都可能強化避險流入,若語氣平和,黃金上行仍以逢低偏多為主。
技術分析

XAUUSD在5555高點大幅回落後形成底部區間(4500–4750),並開始一系列更高低點,表明賣壓已被吸收。突破5030(0.5斐波那契位)標誌短線結構改善,現正向0.618斐波那契位5155推進,為重要阻力區。RSI升至70以上,顯示強勁上行動能;MACD在正值區持續看多交叉並擴張,支撐買方主導。關鍵短線測試為5155阻力位,突破並站穩將決定黃金是否從反彈轉向更廣泛的趨勢延續。
阻力位: 5330.00, 5555.00
支撐位: 5030.00, 4905.00
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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