
*隨著供應風險持續緩解,原油價格仍面臨下行壓力。
*歐佩克+同意從8月起進一步提高產量目標。
*霍爾木茲海峽的逐步重新開放有利於石油流量的恢復。
*供應預期上升令近期石油前景持續看跌
歐佩克+同意從8月起進一步提高產量目標,導致原油價格跌幅擴大,在霍爾木茲海峽逐步重新開放已經給油價帶來壓力之際,市場供應量進一步增加。
該集團在一次線上會議上同意,繼6月和7月類似增產後,從8月起將日產量配額增加18.8萬桶。這項持續的產量調整強化了市場對未來幾個月市場供應量將增加的預期。
包括俄羅斯等主要歐佩克產油國及其盟友在內的七個歐佩克+核心成員國,已於4月至7月期間將日產量配額提高了近80萬桶。最新決定表明,儘管油價上漲勢頭疲軟,該組織仍願意逐步恢復產量。
同時,隨著供應中斷擔憂的持續緩解,經霍爾木茲海峽的石油出口正逐漸恢復正常。這條全球最重要的能源通道之一的輸油量恢復,降低了先前支撐原油價格的地緣政治風險溢價。
隨著霍爾木茲原油出貨量改善和歐佩克+供應增加,交易員目前已將近期供應前景疲軟預期計入價格。除非需求顯著改善或地緣政治風險重現,否則原油價格可能持續承壓,因為市場正逐漸從對供應中斷的擔憂轉向對供應過剩的擔憂。
技術分析

原油,每日:
原油價格走低,目前正在測試…66.70支撐位這可以作為關鍵的下行轉折點。
市場關注點仍然在於該支撐區域可能被突破。確認跌破該支撐區域66.70跌勢可能延續至下一個支撐位56.65進一步強化了整體看跌格局。
然而,動量指標表明下行壓力可能正在緩解。MACD指標顯示看跌動能減弱。而RSI 指標為 28,仍接近超賣區域。這表明短期內可能出現技術性反彈。
如果空頭勢頭開始減弱,原油價格可能會反彈並重新測試該價位。76.80 阻力等級, 其次是86.90如果復甦勢頭增強。
阻力位:76.80,86.90
支撑位:66.70,56.65
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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