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美元因美國政府停擺延長和貿易緊張局勢加劇而下跌

Published: 17 October 2025,07:16

Published: 17 October 2025,07:16

Daily Market Analysis New

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關鍵要點

*美國政府關門持續時間創歷史新高,關鍵經濟數據延遲公佈

*聯準會主席鮑威爾暗示勞動力前景疲軟,可能降息

*中美貿易緊張局勢進一步對市場情緒帶來壓力

*美元指數突破雙頂後接近關鍵支撐位98.15

市場概況:

美元指數(DXY)本週持續大幅下跌,延續跌勢,因美國政府關門削弱了人們對國家經濟前景的信心。在參議員們未能達成一致後,國會僵局持續存在。第十次推動共和黨撥款法案,迫使政府停擺延長至下週。持續的僵局引發了人們對政府效率低下和財政穩定的擔憂,進一步打壓美元。

此次停擺也暫停發布美國主要經濟指標導致投資者和政策制定者對數據的了解有限。這種不確定性使得聯準會的利率制定過程, 儘管主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近發出訊號稱仍有可能降息,指出勞動市場疲軟,經濟下行風險加大。

同時,中美貿易緊張局勢再次浮出水面,為市場增添了另一層波動。總統唐納川普證實貿易戰“已經開始”,關稅停火將於11月到期。未能達成協議可能會惡化美國經濟成長前景。川普仍計劃與中國國家主席習近平舉行會晤。习近平本月晚些時候韓國,為緩解緊張局勢提供了潛在的機會。

技術分析

美元指數,H4:

美元指數在確認雙頂突破並跌破其上升趨勢線,表示看跌傾向持續。該指數目前徘徊在關鍵支撐位98.15,可能會出現一些穩定。

如果看跌勢頭持續,下一個下行目標就在附近97.55。然而,MACD表示下行壓力減弱,RSI二十九表示指數已進入超賣區域,增加了短期反彈的可能性98.80

阻力位:98.80, 99.55

支撐位:98.15, 97.55

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