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地緣政治風險緩解及庫存激增導致原油價格下跌

Published: 17 October 2025,07:21

Published: 17 October 2025,07:21

Daily Market Analysis New

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關鍵要點

*緩解地緣政治風險:據報道,美國總統川普和俄羅斯總統普丁計劃在匈牙利會面,討論結束俄烏戰爭,以減少對供應中斷的擔憂。

*庫存意外上漲:美國EIA原油庫存大幅增加+352.4萬桶(預期增加+30.0萬桶),顯示需求減弱,庫存水位上升。

*貿易戰擔憂:中美貿易緊張局勢和關稅威脅再升級,引發全球對原油需求的擔憂。

市場概況:

由於地緣政治緊張局勢緩和,對供應中斷的擔憂有所緩解,原油價格大幅回落。美國總統川普表示,他和俄羅斯總統普丁計劃近期在匈牙利會面,討論結束俄烏戰爭——這一進展可能會穩定能源供應,並對油價構成壓力。

進一步增加壓力的是,最新的美國EIA原油庫存數據顯示+352.4萬桶,遠超市場預期+0.300萬這顯示煉油需求減弱,庫存水準上升。

同時,OPEC+仍在討論增產的可能性,這加劇了下行壓力。宏觀方面,中美貿易緊張局勢加劇——以及全面實施 100% 關稅的威脅——正在抑制全球成長前景,進一步為原油需求前景蒙上陰影。

然而,長期走勢仍存在不確定性。如果OPEC+因油價下跌而重新考慮其供應策略,或者美俄之間的和平談判未能達成,油市可能迅速重現波動。

技術分析

CL-油,H4

原油價格確認跌破57.85支撐位,預示看跌勢頭持續。MACD顯示下行壓力增強,而相對強弱指數 (32)表示購買興趣有限且有超賣情況。

如果看跌傾向持續,價格可能會擴大跌幅至下一支撐位在 53.70。相反,反彈高於57.85可能引發短期修正走勢62.35

阻力位:57.85, 62.35

支撐位:53.70, 49.05

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