
*日圓近期大幅走強,推動USD/JPY回落至153附近,而今日美國CPI將成為短期最重要的市場催化劑。
*若CPI高於預期,可能重新推高聯準會升息預期及美日利差,帶動USD/JPY修正反彈;若通膨降溫,則有利日圓延續漲勢。
*CPI之後,日本央行進一步推進貨幣政策正常化的預期,仍將是日圓能否維持強勢的關鍵。
日圓在近期大幅上漲後來到關鍵轉折點。USD/JPY自上週以來明顯下跌,目前於 153附近 整理,而今日公布的美國CPI將成為決定下一階段走勢的重要因素。
若CPI高於市場預期,可能重新強化聯準會升息預期,推高美債殖利率並擴大美日利差,為美元帶來支撐,USD/JPY亦可能從近期低位出現技術性反彈。
相反,若CPI低於預期,市場可能降低對聯準會進一步收緊政策的預期,美元及美債殖利率或進一步承壓,有利日圓延續升勢。在此情況下,USD/JPY可能進一步向 150.00心理關口 靠近。
除了美國通膨數據,日本央行的政策前景亦是日圓的重要支撐。近期市場對BoJ進一步升息及政策正常化的預期持續升溫,配合此前的倉位調整,共同推動日圓走強。
短期而言,市場波動可能隨CPI及央行政策會議臨近而進一步上升。日圓能否延續近期漲勢,將取決於 美國通膨、聯準會利率預期及BoJ政策方向。
技術分析

USD/JPY,H4
USD/JPY在大幅下跌後於 153.00 上方獲得支撐,近期賣壓開始有所減弱。更重要的是,匯價已突破此前的短期盤整區間,顯示市場結構可能開始轉向偏多。
若USD/JPY能持續守穩於突破區域上方,將進一步確認短期趨勢反轉的可能性,並有望向下一個重要流動性區域 156.00附近 延伸。
相反,若匯價無法守住突破區域並重新跌回此前盤整區間,則可能形成假突破,顯示買方仍未完全掌握市場主導權,並增加再次回調的風險。
整體而言,USD/JPY短期已出現初步反彈訊號,但仍需要守穩突破區域才能確認更強的多頭動能。
阻力位: 155.60、158.00
支撐位: 153.00、149.80
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