Published: 20 July 2026,10:51
Daily Market Analysis New
*華爾街本週收跌，納斯達克指數領跌，半導體股因人工智慧估值擔憂而延續拋售行情。
*中東緊張局勢加劇，布蘭特原油價格上漲至每桶90美元以上，通貨膨脹加劇，全球能源供應擔憂也隨之上升。
*油價上漲和國債殖利率上升，進一步強化了人們對聯準會可能在更長時間內維持高利率的預期。
上週華爾街股市普遍承壓收盤，地緣政治緊張局勢、油價上漲以及半導體股票的暴跌嚴重打擊了投資人情緒。那斯達克指數領跌，週跌幅近3%，投資人持續拋售高估值科技股；標普500指數和道瓊指數也錄得周跌幅。在主要晶片製造商遭遇新一輪拋售後，費城半導體指數正式進入熊市區間，反映出市場日益擔憂人工智慧驅動的這輪上漲行情在經歷了數月的強勁漲勢後可能已經過度。
由於投資人質疑超大規模資料中心營運商在人工智慧領域的巨額投入能否持續產生足夠的回報，科技股仍是市場表現最疲軟的板塊。中國「登月計畫」人工智慧Kimi K3樣機的發布進一步加劇了市場對競爭的擔憂，儘管台積電公佈了創紀錄的盈利，半導體股仍出現新一輪獲利回吐。包括英特爾、AMD、美光和應用材料在內的幾家主要晶片製造商延續了近期的跌勢，而Netflix在發布低於預期的業績指引後也面臨下行壓力，這進一步加劇了市場對企業盈利預期仍然過高的擔憂。
同時，美伊之間新一輪軍事衝突持續升級，主導整體市場情緒。此前，美軍連續第九晚對伊朗軍事目標發動空襲，而伊朗則以飛彈和無人機攻擊作為回應，波及整個地區。這場衝突顯著加劇了人們對霍爾木茲海峽全球能源供應中斷的擔憂，推動布蘭特原油價格突破每桶90美元，並再次引發了對通膨的擔憂。油價上漲以及美國公債殖利率上升，加劇了市場對聯準會可能需要維持緊縮貨幣政策更長時間的預期，儘管上周公布的美國通膨數據有所放緩。
展望未來，市場重點轉向財報季最繁忙的一周，Alphabet、特斯拉和英特爾等主要公司都將公佈季度業績。投資人也將繼續關注地緣政治動態、美國公債殖利率以及即將公佈的美國經濟數據，以進一步了解聯準會的政策前景。儘管通膨降溫降低了市場對聯準會近期升息的預期，但高企的油價、持續的地緣政治不確定性以及半導體股票的再度疲軟，都可能在短期內維持華爾街的波動。
技術分析
道瓊指數仍處於中期整體上升趨勢中，但近期價格走勢表明，上漲動能正在減弱。該指數在未能守住53100-53300點區域上方的漲幅後出現健康回檔。目前價格已跌破短期上升趨勢線，正在測試52350點附近的38.2%斐波那契回檔位，該位置構成第一個重要支撐位。若能持續守住該水平，或將吸引買家重新入場，從而維持整體上升趨勢；而若跌破該水平，則可能下探至51420點附近的23.6%斐波那契回撤位，隨後是具有重要心理意義的50000點區域。
動量指標趨於謹慎。相對強弱指數（RSI）已跌至43左右，低於其移動平均線，顯示買盤壓力減弱，但尚未進入超賣區域。同時，移動平均收斂/發散指標（MACD）仍低於訊號線，不斷擴大的負柱狀圖顯示空頭動能持續增強。儘管長期結構依然看好，但近期動能的惡化意味著賣方目前佔優勢。
阻力位：52,350.00，53,105.00
支撐位：51,420.00，49,910.00
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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