

歐元兌美元,4 小時圖:
歐元兌美元貨幣對在突破1.6210重要阻力位後,正面臨關鍵的技術測試。儘管最初的突破強化了短期上漲趨勢,但隨後未能維持突破勢頭,這大大增加了假突破的風險——假突破是典型的看跌反轉訊號。
目前看漲結構的完整性取決於該貨幣對能否在接下來的交易日中重新站穩並守住 1.6210 上方。如果未能做到這一點,則將證實假突破,使近期的看漲訊號失效,並預示著看跌趨勢反轉的可能性很高。
動量指標越來越符合這種謹慎的預期。相對強弱指數(RSI)雖然接近超買區域,但顯示多頭力量已顯疲軟。更值得注意的是,移動平均收斂/發散指標(MACD)在高位形成死叉,這種形態通常預示著上升趨勢即將轉為回調階段。
阻力位:1.1620,1.1705
支撐位:1.1540,1.1450

美元/日元,H4
美元/日圓貨幣對的市場結構發生了決定性轉變,從先前不斷創出新高和新低的模式轉為在明確的下降通道內穩步波動。該貨幣對長期上升趨勢支撐線的徹底跌破證實了這一看跌反轉——這一關鍵技術指標表明,先前的牛市週期可能已經結束。
2025 年高點 157.88 創出更低高點,隨後出現一系列更低高點和更低低點,顯示動能持續轉向賣方。先前為上漲提供動態支撐的長期趨勢線的突破,驗證了這一反轉,並為進一步下跌提供了結構性基礎。
動量指標證實了持續的看跌傾向。相對強弱指數(RSI)持續低於50中線,反映出持續的拋售壓力,而非暫時的回檔。同時,移動平均收斂/發散指標(MACD)也維持在零軸下方並持續走低,顯示看跌動能依然存在且正在加速。
阻力位:156.90,158.15
支撐位:154.30,152.80
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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