Monthly Archives: June 2024

PCE疲軟提振股市

Written on June 3, 2024 at 8:45 am, by

* 疲軟的個人消費支出數據打擊了美元的強勢並改善了股市表現。 * 關註今天的英國和美國 PMI 數據。 * 預計石油價格將受到歐佩克會議結果的阻礙。 市場須知 備受期待的美國個人消費支出(聯準會首選的通膨指標)上週五發佈時符合市場預期。這顯示通膨逐漸放緩,並增加了聯準會今年降息的可能性。隨著市場情緒的轉變,美元的走強受到聯準會鴿派預期的阻礙,而股市則恢復了動力。值得注意的是,美國非農業就業數據將於本週五公佈,美元和股市都將受到就業數據的直接影響。此外,加拿大央行和歐洲央行將於週三和週四分別公佈利率決定,引起外匯交易者的注意。在大宗商品市場,儘管美元走軟,金價仍持平,而石油輸出國組織+會議的不利結果導致油價面臨強大的下行壓力,全球最大的石油卡特爾計劃在第四季度逐步取消其減產政策。 市場看點 目前對 6月 12日聯準會利率決定的升息押注: Source: CME Fedwatch Tool 0個基點 (99.9%) 對比 -25 個基點 (0.1%) 市場概括 財經日曆 (MT4 System Time) Source: MQL5 市場走勢 美元指数, H4 最新的個人消費支出數據顯示美國通膨有所緩和,美元因此走低。聯準會首選的通膨指標激發了人們對聯準會今年可能轉向貨幣政策的樂觀情緒,推動美元指數跌破 105 關。市場參與者現在正在關註今天的採購經理人指數(PMI)數據,以進一步判斷美元的走向。 美元指數觸及周高點 105.15 後形成先跌後高的價格格局,暗示美元指數出現看跌訊號。 RSI未能突破超買區域,跌破50水平,而MACD即將穿越零線下方,顯示看跌勢頭正在增強。 阻力位:105.25, 105.75 支撐位:104.00, 103.20 黄金/美元,H4 金價已形成微妙的頭肩形態,目前在2355水平附近面臨強勁拋售壓力。儘管上週五的個人消費支出數據低於預期並緩解了美元的強勢,但金價未能利用美元疲軟的機會而隨之下跌。這表明黃金需求仍然較低。 黃金價格橫盤整理並逐漸走低。 RSI 一直保持在 50 水平下方,而 MACD 則在零線下方持平,表明看跌勢頭勢不可擋。 阻力位:Continue Reading

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