Published: 12 November 2026,08:24
Daily Market Analysis New
*民主黨贏得眾議院多數席位後，華爾街最初的漲幅已經消退，因為投資者正在重新評估整體經濟前景。
*通膨升溫以及聯準會鷹派訊號提振了美元和升息預期，給股票估值帶來壓力，尤其是成長股和科技股。
*持續的通膨可能會維持美元強勢並限制股市上漲，而疲軟的經濟數據可能會緩解人們對緊縮政策的擔憂並重振上漲勢頭。
華爾街最初對美國中期選舉結果表示歡迎，民主黨在眾議院贏得多數席位，選後股市出現反彈，三大股指均大幅上漲。市場認為，兩黨分治的局面降低了政策極端轉變的風險，暫時提振了風險偏好。然而，早期的熱情已經減弱，近幾個交易日價格走勢趨於謹慎，最初的上漲勢頭也隨著投資者重新評估宏觀經濟形勢而逐漸消退。
令股市承壓的關鍵因素之一是美元的顯著強勢，美元已攀升至數月高點附近。美元走強反映出市場對聯準會將維持緊縮貨幣政策立場的信心日益增強。高於預期的通膨數據以及政策制定者釋放的鷹派訊號，進一步強化了市場對進一步升息的預期，包括12月升息的可能性很高。利率上升和美元走強通常會壓低股票估值，尤其是成長型板塊的股票，這也導致道瓊斯指數、標普500指數和納斯達克指數的整體表現較為溫和。
短期內，美國股市可能仍將對利率預期和美元走勢的變化保持敏感。任何通膨壓力持續存在的確認都將對殖利率和美元構成上行壓力，限制上漲潛力，並可能延長盤整期。相反，疲軟的經濟數據緩解了市場對聯準會激進緊縮政策的擔憂，可能使股指重拾上漲動力。地緣政治局勢和特定產業的催化劑，尤其是科技板塊，也將影響市場情緒。總體而言，儘管中期選舉結果帶來了短期緩解，但美元走強和政策預期收緊的雙重壓力預示著華爾街未來幾個交易日將面臨更謹慎且可能波動較大的局面。
技術分析
納斯達克，H4：
納斯達克指數延續反彈勢頭，向關鍵的28,850點位逼近，但隨後遭遇新一輪拋售壓力，未能突破該阻力位。目前，該指數正處於技術性回檔階段，跌破這一關鍵阻力位，顯示上漲動能不足以扭轉整體趨勢。
如果那斯達克指數持續未能收復並守住 28,850 點上方，則表明近期的上漲只是回調，那斯達克指數仍處於當前的下跌趨勢中。
在這種情況下，新一輪拋售壓力可能會將指數推回至26300點附近的先前低點。相反，如果指數果斷突破並持續收於28850點上方，將削弱空頭結構，並為更廣泛的牛市反轉提供更有力的證據。
阻力位（Resistance Levels）： 28,850.00，29,860.00
支持位（Support Levels）：27,080.00，26,280.00
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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