
*美元指數(DXY)因初請失業金 212K 強於預期(215K)而小幅上升。
*勞動市場持續緊張,市場對利率降息預期下降,CME FedWatch 顯示三、四月 FOMC 高機率維持利率。
*黃金維持盤整,美元上行壓力被美伊緊張局勢的避險需求抵消。
市場概況:
美國勞動市場強勁,初請失業金低於預期,顯示即使面臨宏觀壓力,經濟仍處於「低火力」環境,支持聯準會延長高利率政策。前聖路易聯儲主席 James Bullard 表示,目前的緊縮政策仍適宜,雖不再有投票權,但其鷹派觀點仍影響市場情緒。CME FedWatch 工具顯示,春季降息窗口迅速收窄,市場焦點轉向夏季可能的政策轉向。
黃金方面,盤整態勢明顯。一方面,美國國債收益率走高及美元強勢,使黃金對國際投資者更昂貴;另一方面,地緣政治「恐懼因子」仍高,日內持續的美伊日內瓦核談提供穩定避險買盤,阻止黃金出現更深回調。
關注重點: 美元若測試即時阻力位,市場將轉向關注美國 PPI(生產者物價指數)報告。若批發通膨同樣強韌,美元可能出現決定性突破,而黃金則可能跌破現有支撐。
技術分析

美元指數目前挑戰關鍵阻力位 97.95。H4 圖表顯示在突破並回測 50 期均線後,多頭結構已經形成。此動能得到了 MACD 與訊號線金叉的確認,RSI 54,顯示尚有上行空間,尚未到超買區。
阻力位: 97.95、98.70
支撐位: 97.35、96.55

黃金目前鎖定在 5170.00–5235.00 的收斂盤整區間,成功守住下方支撐。H1 圖表技術偏向中性至盤整;MACD 緊貼零線,柱狀圖擴張極小,RSI 在 50 附近震盪,缺乏趨勢量能。
阻力位: 5235.00、5350.00
支撐位: 5170.00、5040.00
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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