
*EUR/USD 滑落至 1.1590 附近,美以聯合打擊伊朗後避險資金大幅回流美元。
*通膨分歧明顯偏向美元,市場定價聯準會「更高更久」,而歐元區通膨仍低於 ECB 2% 目標。
*儘管 2 月 HICP 小幅回升,ECB 仍保留降息空間,法蘭克福難以轉鷹。
市場概況:
EUR/USD 正成為全球宏觀版圖轉變下的主要受害者之一。隨著中東衝突升級,美元重新奪回「終極避險」地位,單週一漲幅接近 1%。這波全面性美元走強由兩大引擎驅動:
美元指數受益於流動性避險屬性,而歐元則面臨能源進口成本衝擊,在油價上行背景下顯得格外脆弱。
歐元區方面,最新通膨數據釋出偏鴿訊號。
這與美國形成鮮明對比:戰事推升能源價格與通膨風險,迫使市場定價聯準會將維持高利率更久。
目前 EUR/USD 屬於高信心「反彈即賣」結構。匯價已跌破 1.1712,並測試 1.1590 支撐區。美債殖利率飆升顯示機構資金正從歐洲資產撤離,流向高收益美元資產。
只要中東衝突繼續推升能源價格,歐元預期維持下行偏壓。
結論:
聯準會維持抗通膨緊縮思維,而 ECB 傾向降息支撐疲弱經濟,政策分歧仍在擴大。EUR/USD 最小阻力方向仍是下行。市場關注是否有效跌破 1.1550,若成立,將打開通往 1.1400 的空間。接下來焦點在美國勞動數據與 ECB 官員談話,觀察分歧是否進一步拉大。
技術分析

EUR/USD,H4
EUR/USD 與美元強勢同步運行,未能守住 1.1625 阻力後明顯轉弱。
除非匯價能重新站回 1.1625 樞紐位,否則最小阻力方向仍向下。
短線關鍵支撐在 1.1540;若跌破,下一支撐在 1.1470。
阻力位: 1.1625、1.1715
支撐位: 1.1540、1.1470
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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