Published: 3 July 2026,07:03
Daily Market Analysis New
*美国6月非农就业人数仅增加5.7万人，远低于市场预期的11万人。
*疲弱就业数据促使市场下调美联储进一步加息预期。
*黄金连续上涨，受益于美元走软及利率预期降温。
美元指数（DXY）大幅回落，此前公布的美国非农就业报告远逊市场预期，引发投资者重新评估美联储是否仍有足够理由在短期内进一步加息。
根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据显示，美国6月非农就业人数仅增加 57,000人，显著低于市场预期的 110,000人。与此同时，失业率微幅下降至 4.2%，与市场预期基本一致。然而，就业增长明显放缓，令市场担忧美国劳动力市场动能正在减弱。
疲弱的就业数据，加上近期油价回落所带来的通胀压力缓解，促使市场降低对美联储进一步收紧货币政策的预期。随着加息押注降温，美国国债收益率全面下滑，进一步削弱美元吸引力。
美元走弱及收益率下跌为黄金提供明显支撑。黄金已连续两日上涨，市场开始降低对美联储在7月会议上进一步加息的预期。
从历史经验来看，当国债收益率下降时，持有无收益资产黄金的机会成本降低，从而提升黄金吸引力。同时，美元走软也使以美元计价的黄金对海外投资者而言更具吸引力，进一步提振市场需求。
整体而言，本次疲弱的就业数据令市场焦点重新转向经济增长放缓风险以及更温和的美联储政策前景。除非后续美国经济数据明显改善，否则美元短期可能继续承压，而黄金则有望继续受益于较低收益率及加息预期降温。
技術分析
美元指数跌破此前关键支撑位 100.95，显示短期市场结构已转向偏空。
动能指标持续支持下行走势。MACD显示空头动能不断增强，而RSI位于 35 并持续低于中轴线，表明卖压仍占据主导地位。
若空头动能延续，指数可能进一步下探下一支撑位 100.10，该区域同时与上升趋势线重叠，具有重要技术意义。若跌破该水平，则可能进一步下探 99.50。
不过，若卖压逐渐减弱，指数仍有机会展开技术性反弹，并重新测试 100.95 阻力位；若反弹动能增强，则有望进一步挑战 101.80。
阻力位（Resistance Levels）： 100.95、101.80
支撑位（Support Levels）： 100.10、99.50
黄金价格持续上涨，目前正在测试 4,205.00 关键阻力位，该区域为短期重要突破关口。
动能指标维持偏多格局。MACD显示多头动能持续增强，而RSI升至 71，进入超买区域，显示上涨动能强劲，但同时也提高了短期技术性回调风险。
若金价成功突破 4,205.00，涨势有望进一步延伸至下一目标位 4,350.00，并强化整体多头结构。
不过，若多头动能未能持续，金价可能出现回调，并重新测试 4,085.00 支撑位；若卖压增加，则可能进一步下探 3,960.00。
阻力位（Resistance Levels）： 4,205.00、4,350.00
支撑位（Support Levels）： 4,085.00、3,960.00
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