
*德國AfD在薩克森-安哈特州選舉中取得接近44%的選票,重挫總理Friedrich Merz領導的CDU,市場對德國政治穩定性的憂慮升溫。
*歐元區經濟增長優於預期,加上通膨壓力持續,市場對ECB本週升息25個基點的預期進一步升溫。
*若ECB升息並釋出鷹派指引,可望抵銷德國政治風險;反之,任何偏鴿訊號都可能令政治不確定性重新主導歐元走勢。
歐元短期可能迎來更大波動,德國政治風險與ECB升息預期正將市場推向不同方向。
德國極右翼政黨AfD在薩克森-安哈特州選舉中取得接近 44% 的選票,對總理Friedrich Merz領導的CDU造成重大打擊。作為歐元區最大經濟體,德國政治格局若進一步分化,可能削弱市場對政策穩定性的信心,並對歐元形成壓力。
不過,貨幣政策因素正為歐元提供支撐。近期歐元區經濟數據優於預期,第二季GDP增長被上修,而通膨仍然偏高,進一步強化ECB收緊政策的理由。市場普遍預期ECB本週將 升息25個基點。
若ECB如期升息並維持較鷹派的政策指引,可能透過利率因素進一步支撐歐元,並抵銷部分德國政治風險。
因此,短期歐元走勢的關鍵在於ECB能否提供足夠強硬的政策訊號。若ECB態度堅定,歐元可能延續近期強勢;若政策訊號偏鴿,德國政治不確定性則可能重新主導市場情緒並壓低歐元。
技術分析

EUR/USD,H4
EUR/USD在觸及月內高點 1.1712 後出現技術性回調,但跌勢於短期關鍵水平 1.1570 上方受到支撐,顯示目前的修正仍相對有限,整體多頭結構尚未被破壞。
匯價其後反彈,目前正逐步逼近 1.1655 阻力位。若能有效突破此水平,將進一步確認買盤重新掌握主導權,並提高EUR/USD再次挑戰 1.1712 前高的可能性。
相反,若無法突破1.1655,短期可能再次進入盤整或回調。1.1570 將繼續成為重要關鍵水平,一旦失守,則可能削弱目前的多頭結構。
整體而言,EUR/USD短期仍偏多,但需要突破 1.1655 才能確認更強的上行動能。
阻力位: 1.1655、1.1780
支撐位: 1.1510、1.1375
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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