Published: 3 July 2026,06:55
Daily Market Analysis New
*USD/JPY下跌近1%，推动日元走强，主要受到获利回吐、风险情绪转弱及日本当局干预预期升温影响。
*随着USD/JPY自历史高位回落，投资者减少做空日元的套利交易仓位。
*若日本央行转向鹰派或美国数据转弱，日元可能延续反弹；若美债收益率回升，USD/JPY或再次走高。
日元在近期交易中波动明显升温，USD/JPY于昨日欧洲时段下跌近1%。此次回调主要由获利回吐、全球风险偏好转弱，以及市场对日本当局可能干预外汇市场的预期升温所推动。
此前USD/JPY持续上涨并刷新历史高位，主要受到美日利差及套利交易影响。由于美元收益率明显高于日元，投资者持续借入低收益日元并买入高收益美元资产。然而，随着USD/JPY升至历史极端水平，日本财务省的口头警告明显加强，促使投资者开始平仓部分做空日元头寸，并降低套利交易风险敞口。
近期USD/JPY回落，也反映市场在美国重要经济数据公布前转向谨慎。包括AUD/JPY及EUR/JPY在内的日元交叉盘同样出现波动，显示日元兑商品货币及欧洲货币均出现阶段性走强。
展望后市，日元短期前景仍存在较高不确定性，预计双向波动将维持高位。若USD/JPY跌破关键技术支撑，或全球避险情绪进一步升温，日元可能继续走强。若日本央行释放更鹰派政策正常化信号，也可能进一步支撑日元。
相反，若美国经济数据强于预期、美债收益率重新走高，或全球风险情绪改善，美元需求可能再次回升，并推动USD/JPY重新反弹。
技術分析
USD/JPY在上一交易日承受明显卖压，汇价自历史高位回落，并跌破关键心理关口 161.00。此次急跌显示短期市场情绪出现转变，交易员在干预风险升温及获利回吐背景下平仓多头头寸。
关键技术变化在于，USD/JPY跌破 161.35至161.90 的重要流动性区域。该区域失守构成结构性跌破，表明近期多头趋势有所减弱，短期走势开始转向偏空。
尽管当前强劲卖压暂时有所缓和，但USD/JPY仍处于脆弱状态，目前正尝试守稳 160.85 关键支撑位。该位置将成为决定下一步方向的重要关口。
若USD/JPY无法守住160.85支撑位，将进一步强化空头观点，并暗示下行动能正在加速，届时可能引发新一轮卖压，并打开进一步下行空间。
相反，若买方成功守住160.85支撑区，汇价可能进入短期整理阶段，并等待新的方向性突破。不过，在重新收复 161.35至161.90 流动性区域之前，短期技术前景仍偏向下行。
阻力位（Resistance Levels）： 161.855、162.70
支撑位（Support Levels）： 160.85、159.90
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