下週非農就業數據（NFP）會不會掀起波瀾？

星期一, 2025年3月3日, 23:00 – 美國ISM製造業PMI (2月)

美國最新的ISM製造業PMI於2025年2月發布，1月份上升至50.9，標誌著26個月來首次擴張。據供應管理學會報告，此次擴張是由新訂單激增、生產增加和就業穩定推動的。對於即將發布的涵蓋2月份的數據，預計可能會略微上升至51.2，這是由持續的需求和生產勢頭所推動，與標普全球的PMI 51.6相符，儘管關稅干擾或經濟信號疲軟等風險可能會抑制增長。

星期三, 2025年3月5日, 21:15 – 美國非農業就業人數變化 (2月)

在2月份，最新的ADP非農就業變動報告顯示，美國私營部門在2025年1月新增了183,000個就業崗位，高於2024年12月修訂後的176,000個，超過了市場預測的約150,000個。ADP研究所強調，面向消費者的行業，如教育/醫療服務和休閒/酒店業，招聘強勁，儘管製造業表現疲軟，顯示勞動市場參差不齊。分析人士將這種韌性歸因於穩固的消費者基礎，可能得益於聯邦儲備系統最近將利率下調至4.25%-4.50%，儘管存在對墨西哥和加拿大徵收25%關稅的潛在威脅，根據經濟評論。對於即將發布的數據，市場預期就業崗位可能略有增加，這是由服務業持續強勁推動的。然而，加劇的關稅擔憂可能會拉低這一數字。

星期四, 2025年3月6日, 21:15 – 歐央行利率決議 (3月)

歐洲中央銀行（ECB）在1月會議上調整了其主要利率，將主要再融資利率下調至2.90%，存款便利利率下調至2.75%，邊際貸款利率下調至3.15%，各下調25個基點。據歐洲央行報告，這是自2024年6月以來的第五次連續降息，反映了對歐元區經濟停滯的回應——2024年第四季度GDP增長停滯——儘管12月通脹率上升至2.4%，高於歐洲央行2%的目標。歐洲央行將這一決定歸因於“進展良好”的去通脹過程和增長疲軟，政策制定者根據歐洲央行行長克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的講話表示，將進一步放寬政策，因為政策仍屬於“限制性”。對於即將召開的會議和決定，預計中央銀行將再次下調25個基點，這是由於經濟持續疲軟以及對通脹將在2025年中穩定在2%附近的信心，這得到了路透社經濟學家共識和工資增長放緩的支持。然而，如果通脹意外加速或美國關稅政策擾亂貿易，可能會出現停止降息的風險，潛在推動歐洲央行在2.90%暫停。

星期五, 2025年3月7日, 21:30 – 美国非農就業人數 (2月)

美國勞工統計局發布的最新非農就業報告顯示，2025年1月就業崗位增加143,000個，低於2024年12月修訂後的307,000個，並未達到市場預期的約160,000個。這種放緩與製造業和零售業招聘疲軟有關，儘管醫療和酒店等服務行業表現堅挺，反映出勞動市場雖然冷卻但仍具韌性。經濟學家指出，聯邦儲備系統維持4.25%-4.50%的利率政策以及關稅猜測——如川普提議對加拿大和墨西哥徵收25%的關稅——可能是拖累因素，路透社指出，11月和12月合計向上修正了100,000個就業崗位，提振了信心。對於即將發布的涵蓋2月份數據的報告，預計數字將略有上升，可能受到穩定消費支出的支持。

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下週非農就業數據（NFP）會不會掀起波瀾？

星期一, 2025年3月3日, 23:00 – 美國ISM製造業PMI (2月)

星期三, 2025年3月5日, 21:15 – 美國非農業就業人數變化 (2月)

星期四, 2025年3月6日, 21:15 – 歐央行利率決議 (3月)

星期五, 2025年3月7日, 21:30 – 美国非農就業人數 (2月)

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