PCE數據即將登場，市場狂飆還是利率震盪在前？

星期一, 2025年3月24日, 21:45 – 美國製造業PMI (3月)

美國最新的2025年2月S&P全球製造業PMI上升至52.7，為2022年6月以來最高，反映出製造業擴張，這主要得益於新訂單和產出的激增。數據顯示，製造商預期新政府實施關稅而提前增加採購，同時需求條件改善推動了這一增長。然而，這種增長伴隨著投入成本上升和產出價格通脹加劇，根據CNBC和S&P全球的報告，這可能表明短期壓力而非持續復甦。對於即將發表的2025年3月數據，預計將略有下降至51.5-52.0左右，因為關稅推動的增長可能會隨著政策明朗化或正常化而減弱，但PMI應保持在50以上，表明除非受到重大外部因素干擾，擴張仍將持續。

星期三, 2025年3月26日, 20:30 – 美國耐用品訂單 (月環比) (2月)

美國2025年1月耐用品訂單數據顯示，月環比增長3.1%，從12月的1.8%下降中反彈。這一數字主要受到非國防飛機訂單在罷工相關干擾緩解後近乎翻倍的推動，儘管剔除運輸類訂單後的數據因消費者支出疲軟和關稅不確定性而保持平穩。在即將發布的數據中，市場預計由於飛機訂單正常化、關稅成本上升、消費者和商業情緒軟化以及勞動市場降溫，數據將出現溫和下降或停滯，儘管醫療設備等領域提供了輕微支撐。

星期四, 2025年3月27日, 20:30 – 美國國內生產總值(GDP) (季度環比) (第四季)

根據美國經濟分析局（BEA）於2025年2月27日發布的第二估計數據，2024年第四季度美國GDP按年化率計算，季度環比增長2.3%。這標誌著相較於第三季度3.1%的增長有所放緩，增長主要由消費者和政府支出推動，但受到投資下降和貿易（進出口均下降0.8%）的抑制。儘管面臨高利率，全年增長仍達到2.8%，然而關稅擔憂以及2月消費者信心跌至98.3，暗示未來可能面臨挑戰。對於2025年第一季度，預計增長將放緩，根據亞特蘭大聯儲截至2025年3月18日的GDPNow估計為-1.8%，反映出消費者支出放緩以及特朗普提議對墨西哥徵收25%關稅帶來的貿易不確定性。

星期五, 2025年3月28日, 20:30 – 美國核心PCE物價指數 (同比) (2月)

美國最新的2025年1月核心PCE價格指數（年比）從2024年12月的2.9%下降至2.6%，符合市場預期。這一緩和是由於嚴冬天氣導致消費者支出放緩，以及為避免預期關稅而提前進口所推動的，儘管持續的住房成本使得通脹率仍高於聯邦儲備系統2%的目標，據路透社和彭博社等媒體報導。展望2025年2月的數據發布，市場預計可能會小幅上升至2.7%-2.8%，反映出持續的住房壓力與關稅影響，儘管支出疲軟和機票價格降低有所緩解。美聯儲在在會議上可能維持利率不變，並可能將降息推遲至2025年中，以平衡高於2%的通脹與經濟疲軟，這是路透社和晨星公司預測的結果。

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PCE數據即將登場，市場狂飆還是利率震盪在前？

星期一, 2025年3月24日, 21:45 – 美國製造業PMI (3月)

星期三, 2025年3月26日, 20:30 – 美國耐用品訂單 (月環比) (2月)

星期四, 2025年3月27日, 20:30 – 美國國內生產總值(GDP) (季度環比) (第四季)

星期五, 2025年3月28日, 20:30 – 美國核心PCE物價指數 (同比) (2月)

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