fbpx

PU Prime App

Exclusive deals on mobile

  • Market Insights  >  Weekly Outlook

1 September 2022,06:31

Weekly Outlook

ADP Nonfarm Underperforms Ahead of NFP

1 September 2022, 06:31

Share on:
FacebookLinkedInTwitterShare
Share on:
FacebookLinkedInTwitterShare

On Wednesday (GMT+3) 31st August, the ADP US Nonfarm Employment figures were released after a 2-month hiatus. According to the ADP, US private payrolls grew by 132,000 – down from the 268,000 in July and the forecasted 300,000 increase. The ADP took a two-month hiatus to revise its methodology and released June, July, and August’s figures at the same time. 

For August, service-related industries came up on top, adding 110,000 positions, while financial activities was the biggest loser, dropping 20,000 jobs. Besides changing the way its data is calculated, ADP now has information about wages – annual pay is up 7.6% on the month. 

“Our data suggests a shift toward a more conservative pace of hiring, possibly as companies try to decipher the economy’s conflicting signals…We could be at an inflection point, from super-charged job gains to something more normal.” ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson said. 

Post-Market

While the ADP has historically been a poor predictor of the much more closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls data released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, how the former’s new methodology will perform remains to be seen.

The biggest question in the markets remains the same: can the US economy sustain further aggressive rate hikes from the Fed? The Fed seems to think so, signalling hawkishness at the recent Jackson Hole meeting and dashing the markets’ hopes for a coming dovish pivot. The S&P 500 is down about 4.77% week-on-week, with the most recent ADP figures reinforcing the downward trend. 

While the dollar has been boosted by Fed signalling, a seemingly slowing jobs market and rate-hike guidance from the ECB are exerting downward pressure – causing the dollar index to end flat on Wednesday. Gold prices have also been pushed downwards on signals of higher fed fund rates, falling once below $1700 as the dollar gains ahead of a relatively optimistic forecast for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. 

The NFP report will be released at 15:30 (GMT+3) on 2 September. 300,000 jobs are expected to be added, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.5%. While a cooling labour market might give the Fed pause with aggressive rate hikes, investors are currently betting on a 70% chance of a 75-point hike later in September. 

As a friendly reminder, do keep an eye on market changes, control your positions, and manage your risk well. 

把握優勢,開始交易

以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。

  • 在我們的Standard賬戶上以最低 50 美元的入金金額開始交易。
  • 獲得全天候支持。
  • 獲取數百種交易工具、免費教學器材和最佳的優惠活動。
立即加入

Latest Posts

簡單快速的開設賬戶

開設真實賬戶
  • 1

    即刻申請

    通過無障礙程序註冊PU Prime真實賬戶

  • 2

    輕鬆入金

    通過多種渠道及可接受的貨幣輕鬆地為您的賬戶入金

  • 3

    開始交易

    在市場領先的交易條件下,交易數百種產品

Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.

Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.

By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.

Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!

Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.

Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.

Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.

Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!