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我們的交易APP與大多數智能設備系統兼容。現在就下載該應用，即刻享受在任意設備上隨時隨地開展交易的樂趣。
1 November 2024,07:01
Weekly Outlook
1 November 2024, 07:01
下周焦點: 11月4當周（GMT+8）
澳洲央行（RBA）的最新更新顯示，利率在9月的會議連已連續7次維持在4.35%不變，反映出其在經濟信號混雜的情況下採取謹慎態度。在行長米歇爾·布洛克（Michele Bullock）的領導下，RBA專注於將通脹控制在2-3%的目標範圍內，同時考慮到高利率對家庭帶來的財務壓力。與通脹降幅更大並進行更積極加息的美國等國家不同，RBA認為澳洲獨特的經濟因素——例如穩定的失業率和通脹水平——支持更漸進的放寬策略。因此，預計RBA將在下次會議上維持現金利率在4.35%不變。
每四年，美國公民前往投票站選出美國選舉人團的選舉人，最終由他們負責選出總統和副總統。這場選舉是金融市場的關鍵焦點，因為其結果可能會影響美聯儲即將做出的決策。目前，副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯以微弱優勢領先前總統唐納德·特朗普。然而，隨著民調顯示競爭激烈的形勢，在選舉日臨近之際，仍存在巨大的不確定性。這種加劇的不確定性預計將引發金融市場的顯著波動，投資者將評估下一屆政府可能帶來的政策變化。
在9月的會議中，英國央行（BoE）決定將利率維持在5%。這一決定主要受到通脹壓力減輕的影響，當時通脹率降至約2%的BoE目標水平，同時還擔心潛在的經濟放緩。此外，行長安德魯·貝利強調採取謹慎的做法，旨在平衡通脹緩解與快速降息可能對金融市場造成的不穩定風險，或對價格穩定進展的逆轉。然而，市場預期英格蘭銀行可能會再度降息，因為英國的通脹率在9月降至三年來的低點1.7%，低於2.2%，也低於BoE的2%目標。這為貨幣政策委員會（MPC）在下周降息留下了空間，此前在9月經過一個狹隘的投票決定暫停降息，並於8月開始放寬政策。
美聯儲在上次會議上將利率下調50個基點至4.75%-5.0%的範圍，這標誌著四年來的首次降息。此舉反映了美聯儲對通脹壓力減輕的認識，核心通脹預計到2026年將逐漸降至2%。這一決定標誌著“高位持續”的利率政策的結束，並暗示美聯儲將從控制通脹轉向支持經濟穩定，開始潛在的放寬週期。在即將到來的11月會議上，分析師預計美聯儲將進一步降息，因為其保持鴿派立場以應對通脹放緩和潛在的經濟風險。根據CME FedWatch工具，市場對於25個基點降息的概率定價為98.9%。
以行業低點差和閃電般的執行速度交易外匯、指數、貴金屬等。
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